By: BRADLEY J. FIKES - Staff Writer (September 14, 2005) NORTH COUNTY ---- High gas prices and Hurricane Katrina have taken some of the optimisout of business leaders in San Diego County and nationwide, a new survey has found. However, the leaders remain upbeat about their own companies.
The survey was released Tuesday by Carmel Valley-based Tec International, a professional development organization for company executives. More than 2,100 executives were surveyed from Aug. 29 through Sept. 6, 75 of them from San Diego.
Executive confidence dropped to 96.9 from 103.1 in the previous quarter's survey, its lowest point since the survey began in the second quarter of 2003. A score of 100 represents a "neutral" level, said Dan Barnett, chief operating officer of Tec.
Whether in San Diego or nationwide, the concerns are pretty much the same, said Gary Knight, chief executive of the San Diego North Economic Development Council. Knight discussed the survey with council members Tuesday.
"The feeling they had is that a lot of attention is going to be diverted to rebuilding, attention that could have gone to other types of projects," Knight said. "That means that competition for employees is only going to increase in our area, drawing away employees to earn higher wages in some of those other areas" hit by Katrina.
The survey found that 45 percent of the San Diego County executives believed the national economy would be about the same 12 months from now, 37 percent worse, and just 17 percent believed the economy would be better.
However, 69 percent of the executives said their firms would be more profitable in the next 12 months, 21 percent said about the same, and just 9 percent said they would be less profitable. Also, 61 percent of them expected to hire more employees, 32 percent said they would keep a steady payroll, and only 7 percent expected to lay off workers.
Ted Owen, president and chief executive of the Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, said such companies as florists or bottled-water deliverers that do a lot of driving are especially worried about gas prices. Owen said it may be necessary for "government intervention" to put a cap on prices.
Gregg Hovey, president of Poway-based Olhausen Billiards Manufacturing, said he expected his company's payroll to remain approximately constant at 195 employees. Sales at Olhausen and competitors have been a little "soft," he said.
"Consumers seem to be very conscious of their wallet, and are going to be very choosy about what they spend their money on," Hovey said.
Hovey said he worries about the effect of Asian industrialization on such companies as Olhausen that make their products in the United States. Another worry is that the state is spending too much money.
"I'm very concerned about what will happen if the governor isn't able to convince the voters of the need to become a little bit more fiscally responsible," Hovey said.
Katrina's effect is a "wild card," Hovey said. If concerns about disasters make the outside world seem more dangerous, people may cope by entertaining more in their homes. In that case, he said, such companies as Olhausen can expect to get more sales.
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